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Greenfire Resources Ltd.

Greenfire Resources Ltd. is an oil sands producer focused on developing and operating thermal crude oil assets in the Athabasca region of Alberta, Canada. Its business is centered on Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) facilities, including the Hangingstone asset base, with shares listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and New York Stock Exchange.

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Revenue584m USD
−26.1 %y/y
Net income47.5m USD
−60.9 %y/y
Free cash flow24.7m USD
−56.8 %y/y

Fiscal year 2025 · change from previous year

Development 2021–2025

0200400600800m USD202120222023: 652 m USD20232024: 791 m USD20242025: 584 m USD2025584
RevenueOperating profit (EBIT)
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Business

Share of revenue
Thermal crude oil production100 %

Production of bitumen and heavy crude from oil sands using thermal recovery methods.

Customers

Greenfire sells crude oil and bitumen into the broader energy commodity market rather than to a narrow set of end customers. Demand is driven by refiners, traders, and integrated oil buyers that need heavy crude feedstock for processing or blending. Pricing is tied to benchmark crude differentials, so the company’s realized sales depend on oil market conditions and transportation access rather than direct customer concentration.

Refiners

Purchase heavy crude and bitumen for refining into products and value capture from heavy-oil processing.

Commodity traders

Buy and market produced barrels, helping move volumes into different pricing hubs and end markets.

Integrated oil companies

Take crude supply for upgrading, blending, or downstream refining operations.

Strategy

Greenfire’s strategy is to maximize long-term value from its existing oil sands asset base by applying proven SAGD optimization techniques. The company emphasizes capital-efficient production growth by using spare facility capacity and improving operating performance at its Hangingstone facilities. Operational reliability and safe execution are central to maintaining steady production from a long-life, low-decline resource base.

SAGD optimization at HangingstoneShort term

Improves production from established assets without requiring large new greenfield development.

Capital-efficient production growthMedium term

Supports growth while controlling the capital intensity of oil sands development.

Operational excellence and reliabilityMedium term

Thermal oil assets are operationally intensive, so reliability directly affects volumes and unit costs.

Geography

Greenfire’s operating base is concentrated in the Athabasca region of Alberta, Canada, where its SAGD facilities are located near Fort McMurray. The company is headquartered in Calgary and its production is tied to Canadian oil sands infrastructure, regulatory conditions, and regional transportation access. Although shares trade in both Canada and the U.S., the underlying business is geographically concentrated in one core producing basin.

Risks

Greenfire is exposed to commodity price swings because its revenue depends on crude oil and bitumen pricing, which can move sharply with global supply-demand conditions and differentials. Its operations are concentrated in one basin and one recovery method, so facility uptime, steam performance, and regulatory or environmental constraints can materially affect output. The business also carries typical oil sands risks around high operating complexity, maintenance needs, decommissioning obligations, and hedging/derivative volatility.

Sorted by severity
LowMediumHighLowMediumHighImpact →Likelihood →Commodity price volatility1Operational uptime and recovery risk2Geographic concentration in Alberta3Derivative fair value swings4
Impact is the risk’s severity and likelihood how probable it is over the next few years, both assessed from the company’s reports. Numbers match the list.
  1. Commodity price volatilityImpact: HighLikelihood: High

    Revenue is linked to heavy crude and bitumen pricing, which can change quickly with market conditions.

    Exposure: Realized prices and cash flow

  2. Operational uptime and recovery riskImpact: HighLikelihood: Medium

    SAGD production depends on steam generation, reservoir performance, and continuous facility operations.

    Exposure: Production volumes and unit costs

  3. Geographic concentration in AlbertaImpact: MediumLikelihood: High

    The business is concentrated in the Athabasca region, so local regulatory, weather, and infrastructure issues matter.

    Exposure: Single-basin asset base

  4. Derivative fair value swingsImpact: MediumLikelihood: High

    Risk management contracts can create large non-cash gains or losses in reported earnings.

    Exposure: Earnings volatility

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Accounting

Judgemental items
Risk management contract fair value

Unrealized gains and losses can materially change quarterly net income without affecting cash immediately.

Impact: Earnings volatility

Depletion of oil sands reserves

The depletion charge depends on reserve estimates and production, affecting reported operating results.

Impact: Cost of sales

Asset retirement obligations

Oil sands operations require future reclamation and closure spending that must be estimated today.

Impact: Liabilities and expense

Long-lived asset impairment

Thermal facilities and reserves may require impairment testing if commodity prices or forecasts weaken.

Impact: Asset carrying values

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Last updated: 28/09/2026